Pollsters split over Caerfyrddin MP at general election 2024

Voters will be going to the polls on Thursday, July 4 after prime minister Rishi Sunak called an early election.

Constituency changes have seen the Caerfyrddin seat created, made up of parts of the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire constituencies.

Jonathan Edwards, who represented Carmarthen East and Dinefwr as a Plaid Cymru MP from 2010 to 2020 and as an Independent between 2020 and 2024, has announced he will not be standing for re-election in the new constituency.

Former Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire MP Simon Hart, who represented the constituency as a Conservative between 2010 and 2024, will be standing in Caerfyrddin this year.

The candidates standing in Caerfyrddin are: Will Beasley (Green Party), Nicholas Beckett (Liberal Democrats), Nancy Cole (Women's Equality Party), Ann Davies (Plaid Cymru), David Mark Evans (Workers Party of Britain), Simon Hart (Conservative), Bernard Holton (Reform UK), and Martha O'Neil (Labour).

Pollsters are currently split on who is expected to be voted in following the election.

An initial YouGov MRP projection, based on opinion polling between May 24 and June 1, predicted Labour to secure 31 per cent of the vote in Caerfyrddin, ahead of 29 per cent for Plaid Cymru and 22 per cent for the Conservatives.

The poll saw Reform UK predicted to receive 11 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Green Party (three per cent), Liberal Democrats (two per cent) and ‘Other’ (two per cent).

However, a follow-up report from YouGov – based on polling between June 11 and 18 – has projected a Plaid Cymru victory in Caerfyrddin.

The latest MRP has predicted Plaid’s support to grow to 32 per cent of the vote, whilst Labour slipped to 26 per cent. The Conservatives were projected to receive 23 per cent of the vote, whilst Reform UK were predicted to get 13 per cent.

The Green Party were projected to receive four per cent of the vote, according to this latest poll, with the Liberal Democrats predicted to get three per cent and ‘Other’ projected to receive zero per cent of the vote.

This uncertainty over who could be elected to represent Caerfyrddin is mirrored across other pollsters.

More in Common has projected a Labour victory with 35 per cent of the vote, based on polling between May 22 and June 17.

The MRP has projected Plaid Cymru to receive 29 per cent, with the Conservatives predicted to get 25 per cent of the vote, ahead of Reform UK (seven per cent), Liberal Democrat (two per cent), and the Green Party (one per cent).

Caerfyrddin (in green) has been created, made up of the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire constituencies. (Image: Boundary Commission)

Both Savanta and Ipsos have projected Plaid Cymru to win the seat according to their opinion polling.

Savanta has Plaid securing 39 per cent of the vote based on its polling between June 7 and 18, ahead of Labour (27 per cent) and the Conservative (14 per cent).

The MRP has projected Reform to take 11 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Green Party (five per cent) and the Liberal Democrats (four per cent).

Meanwhile, based on polling between June 7 and 12, Ipsos has projected Plaid Cymru to take 36 per cent of the vote, ahead of Labour (25 per cent) and the Conservatives (20 per cent).

Ipsos has predicted that Reform will take 10 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Green Party (five per cent) and the Liberal Democrats (four per cent).